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Picture courtesy of BBC.
An attack by the Israeli's, or by US forces, will likely result in the death of hundreds of thousands if not millions of Iranians. And while I recognize the significance of Iran's nuclear progress coupled with its president's horrific statements, one cannot view Iranian politics or foreign policy from a superficial perspective. The president, Ahmadinejad, has no military authority nor any real political power. One needs only to view former president Khatami's failure to actualize reform policies as the barometer of Iranian presidential weakness. Ironically, the Iranian president is more a weapon of mass destruction to his own people, than to foreign nations. The question is, whether the powers underlying the negotiations and nuclear planning are guided by "ideological imperative and nationalistic determination" such that the program can never be negotiated away. To begin with, it is clear that Iran is treated and negotiated with differently than other states, authoritarian or not. The significantly different treatment between the "haves" and "have-nots" is essential in characterizing Iran's fear. Generally, a number of variables have been looked at to explain why a country would go nuclear. Two of the most prominent which have emerged in the Iran "nuclear discussion" are prestige and territory (or geo-political stability).
Prestige: every country which possessed nuclear weapons at the time the UN Charter was drafted is now a permanent member on the Security Council. Many scholars have postulated that "hegemony" requires nuclear weapons. Thus, for a country to reach the status of a regional hegemon, it must possess nukes. I don't think this argument is that persuasive. A number of countries, including Germany and Japan, have successfully become regional hegemons by becoming economic powerhouses. However, what every "strong" country possesses is a nuclear infrastructure. It goes without saying that every major global and regional power is capable of creating and running its own nuclear cycle. It is enough to say, therefore, that if Iran wishes to be viewed as a global, or regional, player it must be capable of exploring nuclear technology. However, to postulate that prestige motivates Iran's design to acquire nuclear weapons is both insincere and dangerous. While the Iranian people are highly prideful, particularly to their technological and scientific progress, the vast majority of Iranians have clearly indicated that they desire nuclear technology and not its military uses. There is pride in possessing nuclear technology because it reflects the advanced character of science in Iran. There is a clear distinction, however, amongst Iranians between the character of science as reflected by knowledge and possession of nuclear technology, and militarization of nuclear devices. Subsequently, at least on the grassroots level, it is inappropriate to think that "prestige" is motivating the Iranians to "go nuclear" in the military sense.
Territory: The second and more important reason why countries go nuclear, is because of territorial threats. The more a country views its territory to be threatened, the more likely it is to develop nukes. The US, Russia, France, Britain, and China in reaction to WWII and the Cold War. India in reaction to China. Pakistan in reaction to India. Israel in reaction to the Arab states. South Africa in reaction to Angola and international pressures against apartheid. North Korea in reaction to South Korea and growing international pressures. Even alleged programs are reactionary. Iraq, under Saddam, in reaction to Iran. Argentina and Brazil in reaction to each other. Egypt in reaction to Israel. And so on.
With the removal of both the governments in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran faces no territorial threat. In fact, it faces two governments which are highly favorable, if not inspired, by its existence. The question is whether the looming American presence is enough to constitute a territorial threat. I don't think it is and I don't think the Iranians think it is either. Generally, territorial threats are tangible. For one, the Iranians know that the Israelis do not possess the capacity or the desire to overthrow the Iranian regime. Secondly, the US administration is so entrenched in its own war in Iraq and Afghanistan, that it simply lacks the manpower or popular sentiments to engage in a full war with Iran.
The Calculus: There is one fundamental issue to keep in mind. The pursuit of nuclear weapons is a highly costly venture, both in monetary and political terms. Post-NPT nuclear states spend billions of dollars, are politically isolated, and are closed off from global markets for decades. In the vast majority of cases where states have sought to acquire nuclear weapons, or possessed nukes by virtue of dissolution, the pressure imposed by the international community has generally succeeded in stopping completion of their objectives or continued possession of weapons. Subsequently, every state that pursues nuclear weapons must generally determine through some political calculus that the deterrent capability far outweighs its political, economic, and structural consequence. That being said, an Iran which is attacked is far more likely to weaponize its nuclear program then an Iran which is negotiated with. Now put other variables in perspective. Iran currently faces an economic crisis wherein its unemployment rates probably near 25%. Its leaders understand the political consequences of economic problems. In fact, every presidential candidate made the economy the focal point of their campaign. In all real terms, the vast majority of the population was sympathetic to a candidate which promised to make Iran an "Islamic Japan," clearly drawing reference to Japan's economic power. An attack against Iran does nothing more than draw attention away from its economic problems and burgeoning democratic movement. In other words, an attack on Iran does more to further Iran's nuclear ambitions, than lessen it.
I do not agree with the main premise of this article. All you say Nema is reasonable if we assume that the regime in Iran is following Iranian self-interests. I beg to differ.
You yourself posted an article befoe of how good relations with Israel is clearly in Iran's best interest. Do you see good relations?
This regime idfentifies itself as Islamist in its core not Iranian. As Islamist it considers Palestine to be its top priority, it sees itself as part of Islamic umma and thus having shared borders with Israel who has supposedly usurped "muslim" land. Iran is a commodity, a resource, nothing more.
Indeed since 26 years ago many of the leaders have become more and more pragmatic in dealing with the Iran-Islam duality, but nothing suggests that this is the result of any change in the core value system of the regime. It is rather a more efficient strategy in using this "resource" they have been controling since 1979. From this view almost none of your arguments need apply to the real situation.
National Nitwit has the untold story of Iran's true nuclear aims.
Guaranteed at least 50% truthful.
Why do you believe air strikes on Iran would cause "hundreds of thousands" or MILLIONS of deaths?
I agree with the main theme of the article that if Iran attacked or threatened to be attacked will go nuclear (militarily) and it would be very rational and logical to do so. Is Iran after the nuclear weapons? Should Iran posses nuclear weapons? From what I have read and been able to interpret about Iranian politics, I have to conclude that the mainstream Iranian leaders and public have concluded that Iran does not need nuclear weapons and when they say they are not after nuclear weapons I believe them. My line of reasoning and pretty much theirs would be something like this:
["Well, I read it;" you might say, "now let's close it!"]1.The immediate threats to Iran from Taliban and from Saddam not only have been disappeared but have been reversed in direction thanks to the naivete and inexperience of G.W.Bush and his neocon goons. Iranian government very successfully walked Bush into Baghdad after all they knew Iraqis more than anyone else in the region. Saddam and Taliban were not just two enemies of Iran, they were quite barbaric in their conduct and in their beliefs, especially Saddam , someone we remember well from his invasion of Iran and his behavior in those eight years of war. The situation in these countries are quite favorable to Iran and for a long time it will be IRREVERSIBLE if not forever.
2. Possession of nukes by Israel is not as much of a threat as they make it sound to be. If we judge Israel from its conduct, it is easy to conclude that Israel is the most openly barbaric government in the region. It has shown absolute disrespect for human lives and human dignity and for others' properties. But use of nuclear weapons by Israel is a bit different than the use of nuclear weapons by any other country for the following reasons. First of all Israel's widest section is less than fifty miles, it is a small country and it can be hurt and turned into a wasteland not just by nuclear but by other GOOD STUFF. So Israel will use nuclear weapons only if it has reached the conclusion that they have reached their end and knowing they wont see the day after the NUKING. Their undeclared nuclear policy is not so much territorial stability (because those territories will turn into wasteland and there wont be much of a territory to be made stable)but a simple thing : if I go down I might as well take a few with me. Even though Israeli nukes are under the control of some religious and secular fanatics but even they, in their limited brain, are aware of their limits and vulnerability.
This coupled with the fact that Zionism is and has been on the run for sometimes now, their defeat in 1973, their great escape from Lebanon, their wonderful!! departure from Gaza with their tails between their legs, and construction of this apartheid wall is all signs of a Zionism on the run. The very same characters who had declared their dreams of stealing lands from Nile to Euphrates, are now happy just to cage themselves inside an apartheid wall; and the fact that Israelis know the difference between Iran and a helpless , defenseless refugee camp , and that Iran is much closer to them than they are to Iran and and ....all the above reasons make me not to worry about the Israeli nukes, they are useless nukes.
3.As it is Iran has everything needed (from machinery to software to hardware and the know how and the expertise) to make a nuclear bomb and it has the capability to throw it far far away where it can hurt the other side more than it would hurt Iran, so if really push comes to shove, Iran can easily shut the doors , turn off the cams, escort the inspectors of the international atomic agency to Imam Khomeini's airport and ...and there you have it folks...a big bad ass metal casing with the inscription on it :HAVE A GOOD DAY. (did you know that in the war of tankers OF 1980S between Iran and Iraq, the captain of one of the Iranian battleships after hitting the tankers carrying fuel for non-Iranians would radio them a simple greeting in English that said: HAVE A GOOD DAY? :) ). But if Iran does build a nuclear weapon now, it has to do something it would have never done before and that would be to sit down and talk with Israel and come up with some kind of alarm and signal or direct phone line between the two governments to prevent each other from mistakenly hurting the other side. Other outcome of Iran's bomb will be the other countries in the region who will be either threatened or encouraged and helped to build a bomb or two!!.
Do not forget that Israeli nukes did not and could not provide security for their restaurants, pizza shops and downtowns. The liberation of the occupied lands, the return of stolen lands can be accomplished with other means with of course keeping the option of OPEN INTIFADHA on the table all the times. Israelis, from secular to fanatics, from hard core to softies, from Generals to garbage collectors, from chicken thieves to child molesters and pedophile, all know well what INTIFADHA means and what it can do to them. Not to mention that Iran has never intended to destroy Israel physically, what Iran says and Israelis know it too, is that this only existing apartheid regime on earth, this fruit of Zionism, has to be dismantled and be replaced with a democratic and civilized country without first class and second class citizens, a country that considers land theft an uncivilized act, a country that does not need to carry out war crime after war crime, massacre after massacre, and a country whose security does not depend on or is not related to ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, the true owners of the land. Dismantling of this Jewish apartheid can be achieved without nukes and in fact nukes would sort of throw the things off the track.
4. As mentioned before, the other countries in the region will try to build a bomb and that will probably make the entire region more insecure than secure and on top of that add the possibility of a genuine mistake by Iran or Israel, or a malfunction in the early warning equipment or...did you know that US had dropped an atomic bomb on Spain by accident ?.The Bomb never went off but this kind of thing would be enough to trigger a real nuclear incident among the countries where the geographic distance is not much which leaves very little time for exchange and verification of information between the hostile or neighboring counties..
However, Iran has passed the point of no return and the world nuclear powers need to understand this. The world nuclear countries can piss out their brains over Iran's enrichment all they want, but at the end of the day they have no option other than accepting Iran into the nuclear club. These nuclear rogue governments need to stop frenzying themselves to a point that nobody will win. If an open hostility breaks out after all the destruction and hostility and loss of human lives, they will come back to square one and will accept Iran into world nuclear club. Does Heydarbab think that an open hostility and military action will materialize? I would bet my money against it. One thing is that Bush administration and Ahmadinejad have a few things in common. Have you noticed that Ahmadinejad has made very little if any hard core anti American statements? He has shown and rightly so, a clear loath towards EU, Bush administration share the same feelings except they won't verbalize it in public. Bush administration also knows that in Iran hostage crisis, when those students had approached Ahmadinejad to join them he had refused on the grounds that he considered Soviet Union more of a threat to Iran than US. Have you noticed that Bush administration openly declared their desire for direct dialogue with Iran after Ahmadinejad came to power? Have you noticed that after Ahmadinejad made those statements about Israel and holocaust, while these EU leaders went ape shit over it Bush administrations's response was very low key?...hmmm...very interesting...Is it any surprise that suddenly Bush administration is facing some problems about wire tapping the US citizens without court permission? Something that would have been kept in the dark for a long time had Bush administration not warmed up towards Iran and had not moved against some pro Israeli characters embedded in Pentagon? Israeli lobby in US with their influence among the democrats and republicans have been fanning this shit in a careful manner not to destroy Bush but to make him mend his behavior toward Iran and become more hostile, of course if Bush keeps up with this new policy the Israeli lobby will go full steam against him. This wire tapping is a serious business and can end Bush's presidency prematurely. He can be impeached and I doubt if there is enough public support for him to oppose this impeachment. All and all, I think at some point America will stab EU in the back, EU knows it too. So while EU and Bush administration act like shit and stink and it is hard to see one without the other, they don't really trust each other and they are all watching their own backs. But my advice to EU and Bush administration is IF THE CARDS ON THE TABLE BEAT YOUR HAND , DON'T PLAY IT. World nuclear powers need to accept Iran into nuclear club, NO HUSS, NO FUSS, NO MORE CRYING....
So you are back, my dear Dr. Strangelove! I'd thought I'd see you on the other side of the line, but now I understand you survived that last scene after all. I just couldn't foresee you would resurface from the East! heydarbaba - sounds you just need a space ship with a sail and you'd be fully set for your next a-love :) Perhaps we could even collaborate on another film. What do you think?
ahh.. Heydrababa (the buddy) is too dumb to be Dr. Strangelove...but he is more of a psycho, I give you that much.
To AIS, (the keyboard Shaaban Bimokh, Shaaban the brain dead )'
In one of your later posts you wrote: "as a Popperian the main point of all my discussiona and efforts is to get rid of ideas so that we won't allow people to be get rid off. let ideas die and people live."...it is fair to say that "the main point of all your discussiona!! and efforts" just fizzled...
Sir,
It is very very sad that a great country such as Persia will tolerate such a totalitarian ruler and system of government. The people of Iran deserve much much better. Militant religious fanatacism is doomed. No matter if it is Christian, Buddhist, Jewish, Islam, Hindu or whatever, extremist religion WILL NOT BE TOLERATED in this the civilized world.... The dark ages are long gone. Intolerance is absolutely long gone. America DOES NOT want war with Iran, or anyone else for that matter. Quite the contrary, America did not want the war with extremist Al Queda and/or Bin Laden. Americans do not want to die in a country like Iraq or Afghanistan. We want to live and prosper and continue to enjoy the freedoms of DEMOCRACY. But we have absolutely no choice but to attack the crazy militants who want to wipe us off the map!!! What choice do we have? Of course we must find out those who mitigated 9-11 on our innocent people and children. We have had to go into Afghanistan to root out & destroy the vermin who are mindless savages and murdering zealots of evil.
If the leadership of Iran continues to develope nuclear reactors etc., America and/or Israel will perform tactical strikes against the targets, I would assume. What choices do we and Israel have?? Sit back and wait for WWIII to start? That would be complete destruction of your fine country for sure!!! Why push America to this? It makes no sense whatsoever... Your great culture of Iran is spelled out in our history books. Why would Iran commit suicide like this? It is asinine to the extreme. Iran has enough oil to export and live well for many generations to come. what is the use of nuclear material for Iran? It makes absolutely NO SENSE. Why would the new leader of Iran commit his people to the potentiality of complete destruction??? I can not understand the logic of your present leadership. I am only a private American citizen, but I would bet that tactical air strikes would occur, if Iran continues with the nuclear build up. I quarantee that a large loss of life WOULD NOT OCCUR. You can take that to the bank as an accurate statement. Most of your nuclear construction is spread out & buried deep underground. These sites would be destroyed quite easily. It matters not much if the Russians, our good friends as usual, provide you with anti air missiles.
Meanwhile, it is time for the great country of Persia to awaken from its' long slumber to insist on civil rights for all citizens. A return to the civilized world is what all good people should insist on. You owe it to yourselves and your children.
Joe Terry
Guadalupe, CA
USA
We need a smart revolution. People of Iran need to oppose this oppressive government by staying at home and shout the word "Freedom" from their houses every night. It should start on Thursday 9th of February at 8 pm. And again on Saturday 11th Feb 2006 and every two days from then on. Pass this on to all your friends and relatives within Iran. With the help of the West and all decent human beings around the world, and the effort of the Iranians themselves, We as the community of decent humans around the world should be able to get rid of these murderers ruling Iran by force. Remember, Thursday Night, 9th February 2006 at 8 pm